When confronted with the question of nuclear annihilation I am initially an optimist.
Despite the spiral of fear that leads to nuclear proliferation, I think the possibility of all out war highly unlikely. The question of World War III is not a question of when, but if. If the planet continues to warm, the current state of land use and ownership (i.e. use of resources, the only thing that is inherently valuable) will change violently and war will most definitely ensue. But otherwise I’m not so sure. At face value, compared to the obvious threats of nuclear war, the prospects of human suffering as a result of climate change are relatively tame. The two bombs the United States dropped on Japan have made there mark on the world’s psyche. We know what happened to the victims and we know those bombs are not very strong by todays nuclear standards. So with that it seems obvious that the pursuit of nuclear weapons by governments (and military groups) of the world is much more in the realm of symbolism than intent to use. Today only 9 nations possess nuclear weapons and today, nuclear technology is far too expensive and advanced for just any rogue military group to develop and deploy. Presumably, those nations that possess them into the future will understand the ramifications of using them: massive human suffering, large scale environmental destruction, the threat of nuclear retaliation, etc. It an arms race!
But there is one large bit of reality we have to confront head-on. There are some VERY interesting people who want to get there hands on WMDs and it makes the rest of us very nervous. After all, the accusation that Saddam Hussein possessed WMDs is what allowed President W. Bush to get support for the invasion of Iraq. But in many cases we are not dealing with a merely genocidal, crazed and power hungry dictator - we are dealing with highly delusional and furiously religious martyrs. Sometimes, the fervor of faith regretfully outshines the power of reason (or even the hunger for power) because of a single notion: A strong belief in the afterlife. Certainty of an afterlife abdicates ultimately one’s responsibility as a member of their community, namely, our planet. It lowers commonly understood ethical barricades. Certainty of one’s afterlife surrenders the pre-afterlife, life, as a service to the god who governs the afterlife where you will rest for all eternity. Unfortunately, this life, as joyful and exhilarating and rich and fulfilling as it may be can hardly compete with the prospect of eternity. WMDs in the hands of strong afterlife-backed bigotry is much more dangerous than those same weapons in the hands of the most hostile secular military group.
Apart from the grand threat of violence there is a greater, far quieter threat. No one knows if there is an afterlife precisely because it is after life, a point where if one’s conception of self doesn’t completely cease to be, one still couldn’t come back to tell anyone anyway! We are stuck believing in a particular afterlife based on what, then? An old and doctored textbook? The tale of the afterlife is frozen in time and immune to cultural evolution, because it will forever lie in the realm of speculation, and therefore belief in it runs counter to cultural evolution itself. The very notion of the afterlife was a byproduct of our brain, of our minds’ grand imagination and of our species’ own struggle with its ignorance and, as such, it must be acknowledged and studied. Yet today we are, absolutely speaking, far less ignorant. My question is, why continue to live under an irrelevant tale – and one that obviously puts our precious lives at so much risk?
As Stephen Fry puts it, “even if it’s not true, we must absolutely assume there is no afterlife”. (See: “The Importance of Unbelief” http://bigthink.com/ideas/17864 for a brief and poignant interview on this topic).



